- We are in the last wave of Bitcoin’s first cycle-degree “largest” bear market, says Silkroad founder Ross Ulbricht
- Bitcoin halving on Google Trends climbs to an all-time high
Bitcoin is holding below $7,000 since before the weekend but is currently trading in the green at around $6,900. Since the beginning of the month, the digital asset has largely remained within a tight range between $6,600 to $7,400.
Gold, on the other hand, is at its highest level since 2012. Currently trading at $1,720 an ounce, the precious metal is almost 6% away from reaching its all-time high of $1,826 hit in the second half of 2011.
The world’s leading cryptocurrency, however, is still down about 67% from its ATH of $20,000. In the short-term, it is expected the crypto-asset could see another low.
According to the hedge fund manager and economist with the pseudonym Dow, this is a “textbook opportunity to short.” the BTC.
Been saying over on @BehavioralMacro that #bitcoin on the chart is facing massive overhead resistance. Based on this chart, this rn is a textbook opportunity to short. $XBT $BTC pic.twitter.com/73JSsfapaG
— Dow (@mark_dow) April 10, 2020
Bear Market into 2021
Besides Dow, there are a number of bitcoin bears in the market currently. Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the darknet market website Silk Road, however, shared a shocking bearish price prediction for BTC from jail. Back in December, he had said,
“A drop below the beginning of wave 2 (around $4,200) would… indicate a much greater likelihood that our second scenario is playing out.”
As we saw in March, the price of bitcoin crashed to $3,850 and Ulbricht says with this drop, the “cycle-degree bull market — from Bitcoin’s beginning to the ~$20,000 peak of late 2017 — is over.”
The bullish count is now “invalidated” and we are in the last wave of Bitcoin’s first cycle-degree bear market, “the largest yet.”
Ulbricht said it is difficult to estimate the extent and duration of wave two as there is “no limit” on how low it can go but it won’t be going to $0.
The two previous bear markets reduced the prices by 86% and 94% and an equivalent reduction by wave 2 would take prices to $2,800 to $1,200. In terms of duration, it could very well drag on into 2021.
“A break below the major low of $3,200 will be a solid confirmation of this, at which point we will be trying to determine when the final low is in. This will be a major buying opportunity.”
The end of this wave will be accompanied by “extreme pessimism and possibly antagonism toward Bitcoin,” said Ulbricht. However, if the price rises above $14,000, this scenario will be invalidated.
This is yet to be seen if the crypto-asset would be making a fresh low while it prepares for its third halving in less than a month. The interest for the event is already off the charts with searches on Google Trends reaching a new high.
However, as we saw with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), with the price not responding much and still trading in a narrow range, Bitcoin’s halving is also expected to not have any immediate effect on the price.
This article is Originally posted on CoinCentral.com